The tropics remain quiet today. We only have a few weak tropical waves to track over the Atlantic, with no named storms.
This loop of visible satellite images from this morning shows clouds associated with three tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
One of the tropical waves is over the western Caribbean Sea, causing disorganized thunderstorms over Panama and Costa Rica. The second is over the eastern Caribbean, causing only a few spotty thunderstorms near the ABC Islands. Conditions are unfavorable over the Caribbean Sea for now because of sinking air associated with the suppressing phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (here's a primer on the MJO if you're new here), so we are unlikely to see further development from these two waves.
The other tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic by Cabo Verde, where conditions are hostile to development due to dry Saharan air in place and upper-level southwesterly winds causing vertical shear.
We will likely see the Atlantic tropics remain quiet for about another week while the MJO's suppressing phase remains over this part of the world. Things will gradually change in time because the MJO drifts slowly eastward. The enhancing phase of the MJO (over the western Pacific now) will reach this part of the world during the first few days of November. With it will come more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.
Most computer model guidance shows that one or two storms will form after November begins, with the Caribbean Sea and vicinity the area to watch. The models don't agree about exactly where a storm will form or where it will go. Impacts on South Carolina are one of many possibilities right now.
As much as I'd like to see a no-hurricane November, the risk is present. So, remain fully prepped in case another storm comes our way over the last five weeks of hurricane season. You can always rely on hurricane.sc for storm prep advice if you need it.
Our weather remains quiet, and we are still in Rainfall Famine Mode. As mentioned above, there's a chance for another rainfall feast during the first part of November if we see a tropical cyclone move toward us, but that's at least a week away.
In the meantime, we have two opportunities for some light rain. One will come as a cold front moves through slowly over the weekend. The Upstate will see a few showers around as it arrives later Saturday. The spotty showers will drift southeastward, pushing offshore later Sunday. Don't expect to see much rain over the weekend; many areas likely stay dry as this front will have very little moisture to work with.
The other rain chance will be later next week when the next cold front will be due into the southeastern states. Early signs are that this will be another moisture-starved front that won't cause much rain, if any. The exact timing is in question at this range; next Friday or Friday night is my best estimate on timing for now.
As for temperatures, our warm stretch goes on hiatus for a few days behind this weekend's front, with highs only in the 60s and lower 70s for most of us on Sunday and Monday. The warmth returns after that, with most of the Palmetto State seeing highs in the 80s again by Wednesday.
Bone-dry conditions since Helene has the driest parts of the state seeing drought conditions again. The drought will likely expand further over the next week. Without help from the tropics, we likely see it grow even more in the following weeks.
The latest U. S. Drought Monitor from Tuesday indicates abnormally dry conditions over most of SC's Coastal Plain and parts of the Lowcountry in Moderate Drought.
