The coastal storm we're tracking is mainly behaving as expected. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is beginning to look like a tropical storm and should become one this evening. Assuming it does, it will receive the name Ophelia.
This morning, a loop of visible satellite images (ABI Band 2 CONUS) gives a close-up view of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen tracking east of South Carolina. Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not made big changes to the forecast since yesterday, only a slight westward shift of the forecast track. The storm is a bigger problem for our vinegar-sauce-loving neighbors than for us. If you have plans to visit that area tonight, it's better to hold off until the storm passes, as tropical storm-force winds are already spreading over the Outer Banks.
NHC's track and uncertainty cone graphic from Advisory 5 on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, issued at 11 a.m. EDT.
While parts of eastern North Carolina might be left whopper-jawed by this storm, we will only see fringe effects from it in South Carolina. Though not quite to tropical storm strength, gusty winds will affect much of the Pee Dee this afternoon through early Saturday. The strongest winds likely occur along the Grand Strand, where peak gusts may reach 40-45 mph. It still looks like Horry County could see 1-2 inches of rain, with lesser amounts over the rest of the Pee Dee. The rest of South Carolina looks dry and breezy, sometimes blustery, conditions during this time. Motorists may have to contend with an annoying crosswind.
The storm is churning up our coastal waters, so there are beach and boating impacts. The surf will be dangerous at all our beaches today and tonight, with large breakers and a high rip current risk. A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of our coastal waters except the near-shore areas south of Edisto Beach, where a small craft advisory is in effect. The rough seas and surf will lessen on Saturday, though the surf remains hazardous at the beaches until Sunday.
Now that Nigel is no longer a tropical cyclone, there is only one other feature to watch in the Atlantic. An area of low pressure has formed from a tropical wave west of Cabo Verde, called Invest Area AL90, but it is a broad circulation with a loose collection of thunderstorms.
This loop of true color visible satellite images gives a wide-angle view of the Atlantic Basin. Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
This feature is likely to become better organized over the weekend and should become a tropical cyclone early next week. The next name on this year's list is Philippe, assuming that Ophelia gets used for the storm off our coast later today.
It's too early to say with certainty that this feature won't affect South Carolina, but early indications are that it will follow a track like Lee's or Nigel's, which keeps it a long way away. However, there is a strong chance that it will be strong enough to generate ocean swells that lead to hazardous surf at our beaches and difficult boating conditions on our coastal waters later next week or next weekend.
Once we get our coastal storm out of the way, we will enjoy a stretch of nice weather through Monday. Saturday will start with lingering clouds, showers, and a gusty wind over the Pee Dee region, but the sun will come out, and the wind will lessen. The rest of the state will have sunshine and a breeze. Our storm will push in cool air from the north, so highs will only reach the 70s and lower 80s. It looks like a nice day for most of the state. Sunday and Monday look pleasant statewide with seasonable temperatures; highs will reach the lower to middle 80s. Nights will be comfortable with lows in the middle to upper 50s in the Upstate and 60s elsewhere.
A cold front will approach from the north on Tuesday, with showers moving in later in the day into the night. The day looks warm with highs in the middle to upper 80s, but cooler air will filter into the state Tuesday night into Wednesday.
It looks like this front will turn stationary over South Carolina or just to the south on Wednesday. That will keep us unsettled for the rest of next week and maybe into the weekend, with showers and perhaps thunderstorms around each day. The temperature forecast is challenging; it will depend on where the front turns stationary. It likely remains cool over the northern part of the state later next week, with temperatures in the 70s. Farther south, there is a better chance for more typical September readings in the 80s, but it could be cooler if the front stalls to our south instead of over us.
