Lee remains a dangerous major hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, east of The Bahamas. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane on Saturday but has strengthened again over the last 24 hours.
A loop of true color visible satellite images showing Lee swirling east of The Bahamas and the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.
Thankfully, the forecast track shows a northward turn tomorrow night that will keep Lee well east of South Carolina. Confidence is high that we will see no rain, wind, or surge from Lee. However, we're still going to see some impacts along our coastline. Hurricanes generate ocean swells that radiate in all directions. Those swells will affect our coast all week and this weekend. Just like with the atmosphere, there are computer models that predict the behavior of the ocean surface.
A loop of significant wave height and direction plots from the WaveWatch III model, showing ocean wave energy from Lee moving toward the East Coast.
The wave energy will increase as the week wears on and peak on Friday or Friday night. The incoming ocean swells will make the surf at our beaches increasingly rough as the week wears on, with rising rip current risk. The risk will diminish over the weekend. The pounding surf may cause some minor beach erosion, too. A new moon is coming on Thursday, so our astronomical tides are increasing. It looks like the tides won't be as high as they can be because our winds will be offshore; hopefully, the offshore wind will keep us from seeing much coastal flooding.
I expect that 'cane swells and offshore winds will attract the surfer dudes to our coast later this week and this weekend. Admittedly, offshore winds and big swells make for near-perfect surfing conditions. However, even experienced surfers must exercise great caution in the type of surf we'll see this weekend. As with any other part of the world, bombing overhead surf means a high rip current risk, and that's dangerous for even the best surfers.
Those with plans to go boating on our coastal waters this week need to reconsider. The incoming swells will make boating hazardous starting Tuesday. We likely will see Small Craft Advisories in effect for most or all of our coast starting Tuesday.
Thankfully, we're missing out on the worst that Lee has to offer, but this week is only halftime for the hurricane season. You should have your hurricane kits fully stocked. If you don't or need any other storm preparation advice, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Storm Margot is still spinning over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. It will likely strengthen into a hurricane today, but it won't affect South Carolina. It's too far away. Also, we have two disturbances over the eastern Atlantic, and one of them may follow a track like Lee's, ending up uncomfortably close to us. So that will be a feature to watch. Finally, Katia is still the little remnant low that could and is creating intermittent puffs of thunderstorms east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions in this area are unfavorable due to outflow winds from Lee causing shear, so it's unlikely that Katia will make a comeback.
